Koror, Palau – As I drove towards the center of Koror, the commercial city of Palau, I couldn’t help but notice the colorful election yard signs lining the streets. The November elections in this small island nation are just around the corner, and the competition between candidates is intense. But amidst the hustle and bustle of the election season, the serene blue waves of the Pacific Ocean lap the shore, creating a peaceful atmosphere that belies the high stakes of this year’s elections.
With just 16,000 registered voters, the elections in Palau may seem insignificant on a global scale. However, this tiny island nation is at the forefront of a competition for geopolitical influence between two superpowers – the United States and China. As the world watches the U.S. presidential elections on November 5th, the outcome of Palau’s elections will also have a significant impact on the country’s future.
Kaipo Recheungel, a Palauan transportation service operator, expressed his hopes for a peaceful election season as we drove past hotels and bars along the main street. He understands the critical nature of this election, as Palau’s relationship with the U.S. and Taiwan hangs in the balance.
Palau is one of the few countries in the world that has official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, while also maintaining close ties with the United States. This has put the country in the crosshairs of China, who sees Palau as a potential ally in their quest for dominance in the Pacific Ocean.
Cleo Paskal, a nonresident senior fellow for the Indo-Pacific at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, explains the significance of Palau’s relationship with the U.S. in a phone interview with VOA. She says, “Palau recognizes Taiwan, and it has a strong defense and security relationship with the U.S., so undermining Palau is an extremely high priority for China.”
Under the leadership of President Surangel Whipps Jr., Palau’s ties with the U.S. have deepened. Last month, U.S. lawmakers passed funding for key provisions in the Compacts of Free Association (COFA) for Palau. This agreement provides economic aid worth billions of dollars to Palau, while also giving the U.S. exclusive military access to their land, water, and airspace.
In addition, the U.S. military is helping to repair a runway on a World War II-era Japanese airfield on the island of Peleliu and installing two radar systems on Palau. In 2023, President Whipps Jr. also requested the permanent deployment of Patriot missile defense batteries to Palau in response to China’s aggressive actions in the Pacific. However, this proposal was rejected by Palau’s Senate last November.
Despite the rejection of the missile battery deployment, the country’s House of Delegates approved a joint resolution supporting the idea of establishing a U.S. military base in Palau. President Whipps Jr. explains the importance of this move, saying, “Since Palau is small, having the protection of the United States is important because we see what’s happening now in the South China Sea between the Philippines and China.”
He goes on to say, “We have reefs and islands that are far away from us, and it could also be easily taken over, just like how the Chinese have invaded what are clearly Philippine reefs.”
President Whipps Jr. has been critical of China’s aggressive military activities in the Indo-Pacific region and their attempts to “weaponize” tourism against Palau. He explains that in 2015 and 2016, tourism from China helped boost Palau’s economy by 30%, but since Palau did not switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, those numbers have drastically decreased.
In response, China’s state-run media People’s Daily accused President Whipps Jr. of twisting the intention behind a travel advisory issued by China in June and attempting to “smear and discredit China.”
However, it’s not just economic pressure that Palau faces from China. Palauan officials also report repeated incursions into their territorial waters by Chinese research vessels, cyberattacks linked to China, and attempts to bribe politicians. Jennifer Anson, Palau’s national security coordinator, explains the gravity of these threats, saying, “The cyberattack happened just a day before Palau and the U.S. exchanged diplomatic notes on COFA, so it shows that the adversaries are watching and observing situations in
