Paris – With Washington’s sudden freeze on military aid to Ukraine, European Union leaders are meeting in Brussels on Thursday to discuss strengthening EU defenses against Russia. The summit comes after European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen called for a $840 billion defense financing plan for the 27-member bloc, emphasizing the need for Europe to take more responsibility for its own security.
The question now is not if Europe’s security is under threat, but whether it is ready and able to respond with the urgency and determination that the situation demands. This sentiment has been echoed in emergency summits across Europe, as leaders fear the potential disengagement of the United States and work towards increasing their own defense capabilities.
However, EU member countries face multiple challenges as they move to beef up their defenses, ranging from unstable governments and economies to skeptical populations and a rising far-right with friendly ties to Russia.
The potential shift in the longstanding transatlantic alliance under the Trump administration has raised concerns for the future of the European Union. As Ian Lesser, head of the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund policy institute, puts it, “Is Europe going to address these challenges collectively or will member states go their own way?”
With a sense of urgency finally taking hold, EU leaders are striving for unity. In a recent summit in London, EU countries and non-member Britain agreed to develop a peace plan for Ukraine to present to the US. Additionally, France and Britain have shown support for a “coalition of the willing” to deploy troops to Ukraine to enforce any potential peace deal.
French President Emmanuel Macron, a long-time advocate for a more militarily autonomous Europe, has also proposed extending France’s nuclear deterrence to other European countries. This show of solidarity is crucial in a time of increasing threats and uncertain alliances.
However, as Olena Prokopenko, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, points out, there is still a lack of understanding across Europe of the level of threat that the region is facing. With different levels of commitment and readiness among member states, it is crucial for Europe to continue striving for unity and collective action.
The challenges ahead for Europe are daunting, particularly when it comes to defense spending. The Brussels-based Bruegel policy institute estimates that Europe would need 300,000 more troops and an additional, substantial financial investment to deter potential Russian aggression without the support of the United States.
As Eli Tenenbaum, director of security studies at the French Institute for International Relations, notes, Europe is currently facing significant shortages in ammunition, replacement parts, and readiness. However, former French ambassador Michel Duclos argues that Europe does have assets that can be leveraged, including a demographic advantage and a stronger economy than Russia.
But with the new ambition for European defense, there are already signs of pushback. Hungary’s Viktor Orban, known for his warm ties with the Kremlin, has suggested that Europe should enter direct talks to negotiate a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. And in France, the far-right National Rally party has rejected the idea of Europe being included in France’s nuclear deterrence capability, with leader Marine Le Pen dismissing the notion of an independent European defense as “illusory.”
Furthermore, public support for Ukraine is waning in some European countries, while many economies are struggling. Recent polls have shown that while two-thirds of French citizens believe Europe should continue supporting Ukraine, three-quarters do not want to see French boots on the ground, except to enforce a potential peace agreement.
European leaders have so far tried to balance reassurance with realism, but as analyst Tenenbaum notes, if they want to justify increased defense spending and risk-taking, they will need to be more vocal about the threats facing the region. The recent heated meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has highlighted the differences between Europe and the US, not just in terms of policies and means, but also in terms of values and threat perception.
For analyst Duclos, this meeting served as a wake-up call for the French public, emphasizing the need for Europe to prepare to stand on its own. As he puts it, “What happened in the Oval Office last week was useful to make people understand we disagree not only on the means, instruments and policies, but on something more fundamental: on values, on the threat perception.”
As Europe faces increasing security challenges and uncertainties, it is up to European leaders to come together and take swift and decisive action. The future of the